Inflation Has Peaked For 2022. We can expect price inflation to slow down from here on out, but why exactly?
CPI – the consumer price index – is a basket of goods comprised of several different components.
The biggest mover of these components, energy, is rolling over.
Last month it accounted for the entire drop in CPI from 8.5% to 8.3%.
But it’s not just the energy component that’s falling. It’s food, commodities, and services.
Every single component in CPI is topping out and primed to roll over. How do we know this?
We can watch live price charts of every single component.
The Food & Agriculture Price Index has fallen from its peak.
Crude Oil has fallen from its peak.
The CRB Commodities Index has fallen from its peak.
With every component of the Consumer Price Index falling, CPI inflation has peaked for this economic cycle.
BUT – Disinflation means slowing inflation, prices don’t ‘decrease’ – just increase at a slower rate.
Central banks will actively fight deflation, and target 2% yearly price inflation.
Inflation is slowed for now, and we’re potentially moving into Stagflation (elevated inflation, slow/no growth).
What assets perform well during stagflation, and what can you allocate to NOW to prepare yourself for the next inflationary impulse?
Watch until the end of the video to find out!
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⏰ Timestamps ⏰:
0:00 – Intro
0:49 – CPI Components
2:49 – Food Energy And Commodities
3:30 – Disinflation And Deflation
4:58 – Stagflation Preparation
6:39 – How To Position Yourself
7:51 – My Thoughts
10:07 – WBF University
10:33 – LOL
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Hey everybody welcome back to white boy Finance my name is Marco and I’m here to Help you master your money and build Your wealth in today’s video we’re going To be talking about inflation and it Peaking in 2022. I know it’s kind of a controversial Standpoint but before I even get into The slides and all the data that uh Joe Consortium and myself put together I Just want to go on the record and say I Think that we’re going to see prolonged Periods of inflation with deflation with Disinflation with potential stagflation Okay so the reason I’m saying that is Because I came out with the video last Month talking about the great deflation But if you read in between the lines in That video a lot of that has to do with Prices deflating from their all-time Highs okay from Mount Everest which We’ll see uh data that data backed up in This video so inflation has peaked for 2020 slowing inflation from here on out But it will be prolonged that’s my Opinion especially with supply chain Issues especially with a lot of things Going on world right now this was put Together by Joe consorti a great Research analyst go check him out on Twitter so first slide here is the CPI Components CPI Consumer Price Index We’re going to blow this chart up on the Next slide but I want to get through
These talking points very quickly just So you know this is being recorded on September 14 2022 I will be going on Vacation literally tomorrow so this may Not be out for another 7 to 14 days Depending on when I choose to release it So all the information at the time of This recording is accurate so number one Is energy is rolling over food Commodities and services are topping out Even though they are increasing a little Bit we’ll see that in the next slide Core inflation is topping out it Rose 0.3 percent this month it is sticky Meaning it is the last to fall we know This we can watch live price charts of Every component so let’s get into that So I’m going to move my uh big head here Give me one second okay boom Peak uh the Peak Energy prices were set in June of 2022 that was a huge component of CPI Going up as much as it did even though I Don’t believe CPI is measured fairly Especially when it comes to the housing Component uh the energy component which Is green was a big reason of why it went Up okay so if we take a look at March of 21 if you look at my laser pointer down Here all the way to June of 2022 you can See what’s happening so the thing is Though Services keep going up you can See this is a clear trend line going up If you look at Goods it started to pop Back up after a few months of going down
If you look at Food It’s relatively Stagnant still high but stagnant and now It’s going up again so it just depends On how this is going to balance and Shake out people I think we’re gonna see Prolonged inflation with periods big Periods of disinflation which we’re Going to see in this chart right here So if we look at food energy and Commodity prices falling yes they are Falling pretty steeply pretty sharply You can see that in every one of these Charts we have food and agriculture we Have crude oil we have Commodities these Are all coming down however they’re Coming down from all-time highs take a Look at 2016 through 2020. take a look At 2016 through 2020. take a look at 2016 through 2020. we are still much Higher multiples higher than where we Were at those points so with the Components of CPI falling CPI inflation Has peaked for this economic cycle which Is a good thing it’s a good sign Especially for lower middle income People So number uh the slide number uh five What is going on we are not seeing this Inflation or disinflation does not equal Deflation okay so disinflation means Slowing inflation prices don’t decrease They just increase at a slower rate we Just saw that with this latest uh CPI Print in September so central banks will
Actively fight deflation and Target two Percent yearly price inflation uh which Is total BS modern monetary Theory Pseudoscience So I didn’t write that that was Joe I Should have edited that out but uh if You guys aren’t familiar with mmt uh go Take a look at the deficit myth the book Called the deficit myth by Miss Kelton Uh and just let me know where you stand On mmt I don’t know I don’t know she’s a Lot smarter than I am I think I hope uh But this is funny that Joe left that in There So what now so inflation is slowed for Now okay we’re moving into stagflation This is elevated inflation with slow to No growth Ray dalio just talked about This uh Jeff gunlock just talked about This everyone is talking about Stagflation let me know what you think In the comments below are we in Stagflation or will we see stagflation In the United States so if we if we are If we are in agreement that we are going To see stagflation what assets will Perform well during stagflation and what Can you allocate to now to prepare Yourself for the next inflationary Impulse well here’s an excellent slide From Schroeder’s put together by Joe You can see here that uh on the y-axis They have different periods that they Define which I will read to you it’s in
This small font which you probably can Or cannot see depending on your viewing Device we have Goldilocks disinflation Reflation stagflation and then we have Asset classes in the blue we have U.S Equities AKA stocks U.S treasuries UST Bills Commodities gold and REITs this is The average real ingested inflation year Over year total return since 1973. okay So I know you’re gonna call me crazy for Talking about gold but if we genuinely Are in a stagflationary environment or Stagflation environment gold is the Clear winner during stagflation you can See right here Commodities and reflation 21 gold 22.1 in stagflation while Everything else gets crushed okay so let Me let me Define this very quickly so Just so you know what Schroeder’s means By these names Goldilocks is Accelerating growth falling inflation Disinflation is decelerating growth and Inflation reflation is accelerating Growth and inflation stagflation is Decelerating growth and inflation above The 10-year average so gold is the clear Winner during stagflation diversify to Protect your wealth Commodities and REITs they also appreciate well and then Also you can hold commodity indices such As DBC Uso and wheat you don’t need to Own a storage facility and you shouldn’t Be trading these uh these Futures if you Don’t want to take order or take
Delivery of these Commodities so how can You position yourself as always we try To provide information on how you can Position yourself this is not a Fear-mongering channel I’m not selling You precious metals over a 1 800 number I got some much better than that stay Till the end so how can you position Yourself you could allocate to gold and Commodities prepping for stagflation Potentially for the next 9 to 18 months As the FED keeps policy restrictive for An extended period you can can allocate To these assets and outperform if that Is the scenario that happens number two Is once we hit around four percent CPI The optimal time is to scale back into Equities into stocks uh though in my Opinion you know you should never sell Especially if you’re trying to build a Long-term portfolio Equities have fallen precipitously and Are approaching the bottom price range For this cycle in periods of reflation Which we just talked about equities tend To outperform most asset classes build That emergency cash pile build the war Chest you peasants lots of uncertainty Moving into a shaky macro situation Where countries are very fragile and Interconnected world could send the real Economy crashing at any moment use the Times when things are relatively tame Like right now to prepare to prepare for
When things turn South okay with all That being said let’s get into my Thoughts okay So I’m leaving for vacation literally Tomorrow my thoughts are I don’t care I’m gonna be stunning my buns on the Adriatic dude I couldn’t care less about any of this No I’m just kidding so what do I mean by That Um I’m just saying that to be funny but In all seriousness if you have a solid Plan and a solid portfolio none of this Stuff matters unless we see legitimate You know stagflation legitimate periods Of high inflation if you take a look at Japan you know their Market hasn’t hit All-time highs for 30 years it just did I think in 2021 last time before that Was 1991 30 years of just whatever okay Imagine if the S P 500 did that uh or You know VT sacs or vti or total Domestic stock market people would be Jumping off buildings okay they wouldn’t Know what to do so with all this being Said Uh don’t take every headline and adjust Your Investment Portfolio take these Headlines take the information that I’m Giving you and be aware of it and Understand it but the biggest takeaway For me during this whole year since January since year to date my portfolio Is down I think like 12 or 13 percent
Year-to-date I think vti VT Sachs is Down like 16 year to date at the time of This recording Um I don’t care I haven’t sold anything I never have I never will I don’t want To say never but Um I haven’t sold any of my core Positions I’ve been investing since I Was 18 years old okay I’m 34 now about To be 35. my point is is take the Information and be smart with it you Don’t have to adjust your entire Portfolio every single time a headline Comes out but you should allocate a Little bit to these ideas that’s how you Can really come out ahead so these are Just ideas you guys if you’re taking Financial advice from a YouTuber uh People that were never in finance that Don’t have a financial background that Don’t have a high Finance degree take it With an entire massive grain of salt Maybe the whole salt mine in my opinion But if you do appreciate content like This I will say Please Subscribe please Hit the Bell notification and hit the Like button all we’re doing is providing Facts and information it’s up to you to Make a logical adult decision using that Information as always if you like the Video give it a thumbs up check out Whiteboard Finance University I have Dedicated professors for options stocks Real estate macro all that good stuff
Plus live streams with me private school Private live streams I reveal everything That I own Um all my accounts all that stuff I’m an Open book you guys uh check that out Check out the waiting list down below Um as always I hope you got value out of This video and have a prosperous day I Will be drinking Turkish coffee at the Beach and the Adriatic uh no suntan Lotion no seed oils uh Uh let’s see what else Uh no McDonald’s which is good all right I’m done I’m done time to end this have A prosperous day Thank you and have a prosperous day I don’t know how I’m going to edit that What if I just left Oh my God I am so tired dude I did four Videos in four days I don’t know how These other dudes do it they’re doing Like three videos on three channels and This and I’m like dude life’s way too Short but I don’t know do what you got To do all right guys peace [Music]